Open Sources-22FEB16

caracas.jpeg

Venezuela Burning

Venezuela on the brink

The conditions are right…for a coup. Large scale political unrest, severe economic problems based upon a mismanaged socialist economy(as per the standard) and brought even closer by plunging oil values. Coupled with violence unchecked, it won’t be long before a change is forced in.

The socialist government was voted out not that long ago; but what replaced it? The numbers of criminal vigilantes roaming the streets is nothing new either; for over a year now they’ve had endemic street crimes revolving around dirt bikers with machetes and sub machine guns- and it looks to be ramping up further.

Whenever there is economic strife, coupled with a large mass of disenfranchised and unemployed youth, and a government that fails to deliver, you have a coup; and almost 100% of the time, they’re sponsored from an outside source.

MLCOA

Conditions will worsen for the remainder of the month; the government teeters on default. Expect a bailout from Russia soon, even if Putin takes a loss. China will likely intervene as well. Like all forms of welfare, the money won’t last long. Expect something from the BRICS nations in the economics news.

MDCOA

Conditions will stay on track, and the government will collapse, resulting in a new military junta, backed even more closely by Cuba. It is unknown how this will work with “normalized” Cuban relations with the Obama administration, however an overthrow of the counter-marxist elected government is likely the plan all along. This will prompt a reaction from Russia, as they have several investments in Venezuela, including oil and weapons(Izhmash has a factory in Caracas) which they cannot take a loss upon.

Why any of this matters

As I stated, it is very likely that this is a coup in the making; with the already frosty relations between Russia and the US, this has very, very deep implications prompting an almost guaranteed response. With a proxy war on two fronts already, and high activity from HM01(a Cuban Numbers Station…examples here and here), it’s worthy to note that a potential third front is opening up just to our south. It is this third area which little attention is being paid by the media(and why I’m writing about it) that you should be looking to.

Be informed. It matters; it’s a predictor of things to come.

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50 thoughts on “Open Sources-22FEB16

      1. The top article in question is indeed.

        The situation on the ground has not changed, but worsened due to a variety of factors. It was included to give a perspective on how this has progressed.

        As the second article demonstrates, it has not changed over time; and the widespread censorship of the local happenings continue.

        Thank you for your input; a bit more critical thinking on your part, and less of a desire to be pedantic, might have been a bit more appreciated.

        Like

  1. Stone Turner

    The lack of coverage in the MSM is telling in and of its self. Is there a link to the original article to forward along with your commentary?

    Like

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  5. Mike Bishop

    About that MDCOA…

    “The earth trembles around Maduro. “It is an open secret that the military governors themselves, led by Arias Cardenas, are pushing to call for his resignation. And more than one has presidential aspirations. There militarists sectors that feel called to rule ,” revealed Henry Ramos, president of the National Assembly, who even summoned them one by one. Of course all of them have denied this maneuver, although the president has reduced the power of the military ahead of regional elections at the end of the year and the transcendental PSUV Congress in April, starting with your own Diosdado Cabello .”

    http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2016/02/21/56c8b956ca4741d8728b4629.html

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Smitty

    I was working in Venezuela when the monster Chavez took control. I saw the morning newspaper out of Caracas with the front page photo of the U.S. Navy task force just offshore from Caracas (Paper Tiger).
    There were many American in Venezuela helping the leftist gain power.
    What U.S. citizens do not understand is how rapidly changes occur when the leftist think they have the upper hand. Chavez did not use the police or military instead he sent groups of thugs to begin taking over the communities. Since he had the power of the presidency he simply stood down the forces. There are videos on the Internet of the thugs with decree in hand going to farms and evicting the rightful owners so they could take their land and homes. Cronies would then be assigned to the property. Of course the farms failed when the ignorant leftist took control. I could not keep my big mouth shut so I had to leave the country before they killed me.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I really appreciate the first hand input- your story corroborates a friend’s who was there as well.

      Chavez’s coup was very much like Hitler’s in many ways. Each of these marxist thugs do the same things when power is taken- and the end result, sometimes sooner, sometimes later- is always the same. Maduro is attempting to keep the nationalist flair alive, but it ain’t happening. He’s outlived his usefulness too.

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      1. Smitty

        As a devout anti-Marxist it was difficult for me to remain in Venezuela after the fall. My team took four Venezuelan technicians to Cameroon with us a few years later and they complained bitterly every day about the failing economy and the massive inflation rampaging in their home country. One of the Venezuelans made a huge mistake and got himself hit in an ambush and shot up. He was lucky to survive because 3 Gendarme in the vehicle with him died in the attack. The one thing he did correctly was to accelerate through the ambush and call us to get a helicopter to him for extraction. The eastern region of Cameroon in heavily Muslim (Wahhabi). Seeing the kids being taught in a Wahhabi school was an eye opening experience. They are taught to detest the infidel. We are lower than a dog to the Wahhabi.

        I occasionally hear from them and they are very angry about the government’s inability to improve their situation. Two of them supported Chavez at first and I reminded them of that the whole time we were in Cameroon. If the Venezuelans ever get their hands on weapons a very ugly civil war will erupt.

        Thanks for covering this subject. The Venezuelan people are a proud and kind people and do not deserve the corrupt government they currently have to endure.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Absolutely right on all accounts…

        And the reality is that 100% of Wahabbis are indeed taught to hate- there is no “middle ground moderates” as the liberals like to tell us. But that’s another topic for another day.

        Those who’ve been in the working class under marxism and become liberated NEVER wish to return to it. It’s a lesson the marxists in the US seem to refuse to acknowledge.

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    2. Mellissa

      My friend’s husband has family in Venezuela. The government is to blame for their food shortages. They kicked the farmers out (like you said), and tried making food cheaper by setting price controls. But the price is lower than spent to produce. They’ll get arrested if they sell it higher, so they stop producing.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. mtnforge

    Seems to me it is no coincidence relations with Cuba are being “normalized” and the announcement the magic man is making a visit to Havana is taking place. I suspect too the rotten things obama and clinton perpetrated on Honduras back in 2009 is an unfinished bit of agenda. And there are reports US Special Forces are involved in some happenings in Nicaragua the last couple weeks.
    If the political/crony elites in our government are involved in something there are no unrelated events on the national or international stage. You can take it on faith they are up to something no good.

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  8. Centurion_Cornelius

    Yepper, hats off to you, ncscout.

    …eternal vigilance…

    Like the “Wizard of the Saddle,” Nathan Bedford always said: “Hit ’em hardest where they ain’t.”

    and we ain’t no where near this place.

    profound thanks.

    P.S.
    Gen. Forrest’s greatest quote, IMHO:

    “No one kills me and lives!”

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Shocktroop0351

    Thanks for pointing this out. The more a guy learns, the faster the wheels seem to be spinning (or maybe I just notice it more), and there is only so many hours in a day to be staying on top of events, planning, fixing, etc.

    Like

    1. Absolutely!

      One thing to do, if you(or anyone else reading the comments) are into DX stuff on 20m, is to make as many regular amateur radio contacts in South America as you can. More often than not, they’ll have a better current grasp of things than anything we’re likely to get in our regular filter.

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    2. I think it’s more of a “when” rather than “if” dynamic.
      Team Freefor is counting on you and your merrie band of band-watchers…. 😉
      Collapse will have a domino effect. Forewarned is forearmed.

      Like

  10. Ye olde communist menace, eh? Good old Cold War stuff. What a nostalgic rush!

    Maybe it doesn’t really matter to us what happens in Venezuela. Maybe they can sort things out on their own without our “help” after all. Stranger things have happened…

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Tennessee Budd

    I’ve seen & heard similar things elsewhere: this seems spot-on.
    A clarification on “criminal vigilantes”: I’m unsure of the meaning of this phrase. Vigilantes operate outside the law, and are therefore legally criminals, albeit yet to be convicted. They usually, however, work to curb criminal activity, especially perpetrated toward a community by fringe or outside elements.
    I was left uncertain whether you meant to point out that the vigilante’s efforts were technically illegal, or if you had misused the term “vigilante”.
    A minor point, but it was unclear.

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    1. No, criminal vigilante is a term used when their motivation is unknown.

      All that is known is that they’re causing a ruckus. There’s no linkage, no association, no motivation; all things that generate questions which clarify the picture.

      Until these questions are resolved, they’re “Criminal Vigilantes.”

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  12. Venezuela has been unstable for at least two decades. We were in country during the economic meltdown/bank shuttering of the early 90’s, Caracas wasn’t a safe city, but a thriving tourist industry still existed on offshore Margarita Island. Essentials were already significantly subsidized so much so that motorists would just let fuel run in rivulets unattended at gas stations. It cost us about $1.15 USD to fill up the tank of our rental Suzuki Sidekick. I haven’t identified any meaningful “recovery” in Venezuela since we left, and tourism to Margarita Island is effectively non-existant, killing off a reliable source of hard currency.

    As far as Chinese influence in Central/South America, the horse has already left the barn. When we were attending an international sporting event in Costa Rica in 2014, I was surprised to learn that the stadium where the invitational was being hosted had been paid for and donated to the “people of Costa Rica” in the capital city of San Jose by the Chinese government. Our hosts explained Chinese “donations” of similar sporting venues throughout the country. Chinese fishing trawlers were prominent on the Pacific coast. And let’s not forget, the Chinese investment in building a shipping transit canal through Nicaragua, which will cause irreversible ecosystem failure to the native freshwater lake that lies along the path of construction. Not a peep from our corporate media, let alone the enviro-weenies who invigilate these infractions with vigor everywhere else on planet earth.

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140329-nicaragua-canal-hknd-panama-wang-jin-world/

    The Chinese are not only at our backdoor, they’re busying winning anti-American hearts and minds, while the majority of Americans are none the wiser.

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    1. Spot on observations…especially concerning the media.

      There’s a lot more to it too. Banana Republics are real; it’s not just some phrase taught to freshman history students by marxists in the classroom to discredit the US.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. “Stadium Diplomacy”
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadium_diplomacy

      Costa Rica National Stadium (2011) – Following a breakaway from diplomatic recognition of Taiwan in favor of China by the Costa Rican government in 2007, China spent an estimated 100 million USD to construct the stadium from 2008 to 2011. Local newspaper, the Tico Times called the stadium “Costa Rica’s jewel” and the design “an aerodynamic masterpiece”.

      http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/summer2012/chinas-stadium-diplomacy

      “…More recently, the creation of a Chinatown in the center of the nation’s capital has captured the country’s attention. The 45,000 Chinese residents in Costa Rica have become an important political and cultural force and are the second largest Chinese population in Central America.”

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Wow…I wasn’t aware of the “goings on” in Costa Rica…however it’s not surprising.

        I recommend a couple books by H. John Poole- Tequila Junction and Dragon Days; both detailing links between China and the various puppet states and insurgent groups set up in South America.

        Liked by 1 person

  13. Thanks for the tips – I am well aware of H. John Poole’s body of work – good stuff!! My co-blogger Partyzantski will be posting a few more book reviews of his work as a follow on to his self-education series recommendation of Poole’s “Phantom Soldier”. 😉

    I’ve also heard some first-hand toe curling stories from US Army FAO’s who were posted in Central and South America and their frustration with being detailed solely to “observe and report”.

    According to DH, apparently you can never have “too much ammo”, IYKWIMAITYD.

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  15. mtnforge

    Looks like Balkan’s South of The Border as the roll on order effects of -$20 a barrel oil expose the bankrupt nature of South and Central American banana republics. And collapse in demand for sugar, mined raw goods, (except gold and diamonds), manufacture of northern hemisphere goods, the whole economy except for underground and system D, has never been but a crony system.
    If the Chinese pull out because of their own economic state, south of the border implodes.
    Mexico state run oil industry is toast. It can’t even sell enough oil at $20 below what it costs to extract it to cover it’s margin only 2 months into 2016.

    Then there’s our wide open southern border and a political/corporate elite who greatly desire supplanting the America populous with imports. It goes down the crapper, everyone who is able is going to head north. It’s still the promised land of free shit. Like what is happening in Europe.

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    1. I highly doubt the PLA will move out of South America. While their central economy appears to be tanking if one was simply looking at stock quotes, they have a hedge against failure that’s been building- and it’s not just gold as everyone is so fond of parroting(although that is one part of the equation).

      The mineral and material resources are what they’ve been after. And just like what they did in Rhodesia, they’ll install their own local yokel promising things he can’t deliver for the useful idiots to do their bidding while they milk the country dry.

      Like

      1. mtnforge

        Gold? Them Chinese are all about gold. They can’t buy enough of it. 2 weeks ago they all but cleaned out the London vaults to the tune of something on the order of 1200 tons. And that’s one buy in nobody knows for sure how many the last few years. Seems like hedging on physical gold by any means.

        What I was trying to convey is south and central America is a banana republic time bomb. If it aint the Red Chinese oligarchy, it is somebody else, and it is all open to the highest bribe and tribute. Screw the peasants. It is the Latin American way. The American way ain’t looking much different lately in that respect.
        A mitigating concerns here to me is the rest of the world is separated from us by two large oceans, Latin American isn’t. I’m agreeing with you guys on principle goings on down there are of inestimable importance as things begin to spiral out of control of the fiat money launderers. Venezuela is imploding because of the disastrous world wide effects of fiat manipulations by the “leaders” of the West. Petro dollar value anyone?
        There is the small problem of rampant marxism too, of every flavor, and as you put it so succinctly, the #1 consideration of human terrain. Is it too much to contend we face the same human terrain problem as the European Union, where the corporate and political class see’s the unfettered importation of third world peoples as the remedies and solutions to their continued power and wealth.
        Central America is a land bridge which points straight at the heart of America.
        Example in point, all those hundreds of thousands of “undocumented children” who miraculously made it up all the way through Mexico, unscathed, uninhibited, into the US? Who got them going? Who let them through? Who put them on those trains? Who let them stay on those trains? How did tens of thousands make it through the gauntlet of the northern mexican border drug cartels, and who let them across the international border with Mexico, on both ends of their journey? Who funded this crisis as a means? Seems like an awful lot of “things” seem to happen at out southern border.
        Not for nothing, there are some really funny coincidences with that above and what is going on in Europe with so called “Syrian child refuges”.

        Come on NCScout, I may be ignorant of the finer geopolitical nuances and economic leveraging here, but I’m not stupid either. This kind of stuff happens because somebody in a position of power wanted it to take place for very specific reasons and intended consequences.
        It is like cross border authority in Benghazi. Say anything you want, it is all chin music. Except the reality, how those guys where left with their arses in the wind, because the only way anyone was going to come to the rescue was if POTUS released them on Cross Border Authority, and the opposite is the cold hard truth also, nobody came to their rescue exactly because Cross Border Authority was not granted.

        I believe Latin America is a serious weapon to be used on America. As it has been. Millions of American’s are correct to see illegal entry no matter how large or small into America as their most critical concern. Just as wonton importation of hordes of muslims from Asia Minor is being used on the continent. Both are directed at the West. I don’t see anyone dying to get into the middle east or Latin America, or Africa. And China, and the rest of Asia does not permit migration or immigration of any kind. The Chinese are inscrutable of mind to most of the west. Neocons have made a fine mess of south America throughout my lifetime. Never mind the current regime, and the regime change they instigated in Honduras in 2009.
        And what about Venezuela, how did that little tropical sleepy gem of a nation become a marxist hellhole anyways? I was down there in the early 80’s a couple times, friends had a villa they entertained at. It was very inexpensive to go there, dirt cheap actually. It was a little go along to get along mini banana republic. Everyone seemed to know what side their bread was buttered on. The people down there didn’t just decide to commit cultural and economic suicide en mass in one election cycle. Who was behind it’s 180 degree transformation and why into a socialistic paradise, is probably the answer to many things which probably lead to this moment in time, and the key behind where things are heading. Follow the money, follow the oil, the gold, and the leverage of geopolitical position on earth. Venezuela seems like a key element in what’s going down and understanding why and how is very important. Darn if I know. I only got what I am permitted to see to go by.

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