Open Sources- 29FEB2016

ramzan.jpeg

Kadyrov Resigns

Ramzan Kadyrov, the longtime President of Chechnya, has just resigned. Why is this important? Because this also just happened today.

To give a bit of background, the conditions on the ground in Chechnya around 2004, when he assumed command of the country after his murdered father, was dire. Putin wanted a clean resolution; the Chechen people were fractured, split among the Chechen Nationalists and the International Islamic Brigade fundamentalists. The nation wanted peace, the Jihadists wanted Jihad and the world was watching.

Kadyrov found himself allied with Putin, and forced peace happened, up to this point. There’s been other incidents, most notably the 2011 Domodedovo Airport Bombing, but overall, he’s kept the place straight, by hook, crook, or however else.

Given recent statements by him in regards to Chechen fighters on behalf of ISIS and the lesser known brigade fighting for Right Sektor in Ukraine( a Ukraine Nationalist/Anti-Russia militia and political party), both of these events point to a direction that may rapidly go south. According to CSM:

In fact, Kadyrov is issuing an ultimatum to Mr. Putin to step in and personally support him for reelection in voting due this September, or risk destabilizing the strongman rule that has kept Chechnya pacified for the past 8 years, they say.

MLCOA

Kadyrov will step down; Putin will place another seemingly more legitimate leader in. Factions will begin grumbling, and the more fundamentalist elements will gain a renewed vigor lost since Doku Umarov was killed in 2013. With this, Putin’s administration will use this escalation, including the murdered child, as the justification to further the war against ISIS. The West’s support of the more radical elements will be implied, as it was in the late 90s(not without merit either) and has been of ISIS recently.

MDCOA

Kadyrov refuses to step down even after his resignation and triggers a larger revolt of the liberal elements in the region and Russia, leading to the Islamists to take advantage of the situation in a power grab. The insurrection would cause a serious internal upheaval in Russia with a large uptick in Islamic violence. Although unlikely, Kadyrov as a result of disillusionment with the Kremlin, begins aligning closer with the Fundamentalists.

Either way, this ain’t pretty.

Now would be a good time to remind everyone, this half-Chechen guy to the rightsish trained by us, in Georgia(the country south of Chechnya, not the state south of SC) and was in the Georgian version of a LRSC during their brief war with Russia before running off to a life of Jihad, is leading the military arm of ISIS. The world knows him as Omar al-Shishani. Go back and re-read that statement.

This situation has deep implications and it’s going to get a lot worse. All during an election year for the US as well. Nothing happens by accident.

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9 thoughts on “Open Sources- 29FEB2016

  1. I’d say the question is, who is the American based version of Omar al-Shishani. A guy like this would be mentoring commanders to operate throughout the western hemisphere if he is half the islamic insurgency leader he appears to be.

    And what of the growing police state which appears to be more concerned with Western Ranchers and executing one of them, importing tens of thousands of potential jihadists and dropping them across the “unsecured spaces” of rural America. Sure seems like just too many convenient unrelated events and circumstances.

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    1. Jack Oppenheimer

      When you consider the Head of DHS and heads of most of the Federal level LE’s are muslims, do you really need another Omar, per se?

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  3. Centurion_Cornelius

    Yo! the Putin/Chechnya pipeline has been…let’s say “very interesting” over the last few years. ‘Specially when you had “Sonny Boy” Ramzan given the “do what needs to be done” signal from “Poppy Putin.” Boy, those two guys in public pics were a real pictorial (pectoral?) “item.” The puppet Master and the puppet Dummy.

    Ramzan kicked ass and even forgot to take names (who cares when your enemies are dead) and things were peachy keen with Muscovite TPTB. Alas, all good things must come to an end, and “Rammy Boy,” if he was smart (you never know) should have millions of Swiss Francs stashed hither, thither, and yon if he’s properly read the “Tyrant’s Playbook” correctly. Methinks he’s not all that much of a book-larner, really.

    The puppet Master drew in the control strings and it’s mighty hard to dance when you’re no longer flying-by-wire. Ramzan never thought about governing via Moscow Elite WiFi channel tho. Too complicated–he just like busing skulls.

    Looks like it’s now “Ramzan-on-the-Run,” or, should we say “Band (of cut-throats) on the Run,” but who really knows? Stay tuned…

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  4. shocktroop0351

    So, let me see if I can follow this. Whether or not Kadyrov steps down or stays, Islamic violence in Russia is likely to increase. If Russia uses this as a means to step up their work against ISIS, then you can expect more ISIS influence in the Islamic parts of Russia, and thus more terrorism. This will of course spur the Russian’s to more action.

    All of this really disturbs me. On the one hand, it disgusts me to know how involved our government is with supporting ISIS, so naturally I would love to see Russia go in and wipe them out. Not only to get rid of an over grown cancer such as ISIS, but to try and establish some stability in the area to ease the refugee crisis into Europe. I would also love to see our dear leader leave office with egg on his face.

    But on the other hand, after reading this (http://straightlinelogic.com/2016/02/24/the-quagmire-to-end-all-quagmires-by-robert-gore/) the other day, I can see how Assad taking Aleppo will not sit well with the the US regime and the Sunnis’, thus causing an escalation from the west in support of anything “anti-Russian”. Because as far as I can tell, with the Russian’s owning the seafront property in Syria, and Iraq not being a very reliable route into Syria, and the south of Syria being in Shiite hands, ISIS’ main route in is through Aleppo. Once that is pinched off, they will be hurting.

    Back during the revolt in the Ukraine, I was listening to a podcast that was doing an interview with a former naval intelligence officer. This guy stated that the entire reason we were in Ukraine helping to fuel this revolt, was to tie up the only deployable Russian division, stationed in Crimea. At the time, which was well before the Russian’s went to Syria, I thought “interesting theory”. But now, I see that perhaps there might have been something to this.

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  5. mtnforge

    Neither do useful dupes and other cannon fodder, but they serve an important purpose, usually not good for freedom.
    In the broader aspect I’d think it is germane who is he a proxy for, he must have high value, and or how many proxies is he useful too. And is he a model for other proxies of his type. Like you said about Chechnya, it’s cautionary and circular. But even more so understanding the human terrain part.

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